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SparkFun Electronics will be closed in observance of memorial day on Monday, May 29th. We will resume normal business hours on Tuesday, May 30th. Any orders placed after 2pm Mountain Time on Friday, May 26th will process and ship out on Tuesday, May 30th.

Member #40104

Member Since: May 22, 2008

Country: United States

  • I’m sorry, that’s not right. If your probability were the odds (2000/6,437,592=0.03% or 1 in 3219) times the number of attempts, you would be guaranteed to win if you entered 3219 captchas. Your actual odds of winning with N captchas are 1-(0.9997)N. If you entered a captcha every four seconds for the entire 355 minutes or 5325 in all, your odds of winning would be 80.9%. On the other hand if you entered 1000 captchas (which is still a lot!), your odds of winning were 26.7%. Based on the total participants, your odds in winning were 2000/32137, or 6.2%.

    You’re right that you can affect your odds by how many times you entered those mindless letters, but nothing could guarantee that you win (and I didn’t…)

  • Based on the status page (no longer linked), you have approximately a 1:5500 chance of winning on any single entry. Assuming you successfully enter captchas every 10 seconds for the full seven hours, you will have a 37% chance of winning. However, the expected value of your time works out to $5.26 per hour.

    I think I’ll just buy my parts, but thanks anyway!

No public wish lists :(