Member #40104

Member Since: May 22, 2008

Country: United States

  • News - Free Day 2012 Recap | about 2 years ago

    I’m sorry, that’s not right. If your probability were the odds (2000/6,437,592=0.03% or 1 in 3219) times the number of attempts, you would be guaranteed to win if you entered 3219 captchas. Your actual odds of winning with N captchas are 1-(0.9997)N. If you entered a captcha every four seconds for the entire 355 minutes or 5325 in all, your odds of winning would be 80.9%. On the other hand if you entered 1000 captchas (which is still a lot!), your odds of winning were 26.7%. Based on the total participants, your odds in winning were 2000/32137, or 6.2%.

    You’re right that you can affect your odds by how many times you entered those mindless letters, but nothing could guarantee that you win (and I didn’t…)

  • News - Free Day 2012 is Under Wa… | about 2 years ago

    Based on the status page (no longer linked), you have approximately a 1:5500 chance of winning on any single entry. Assuming you successfully enter captchas every 10 seconds for the full seven hours, you will have a 37% chance of winning. However, the expected value of your time works out to $5.26 per hour.

    I think I’ll just buy my parts, but thanks anyway!

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